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Mon, Nov. 26th, 2012, 08:07 pm
Intrade banned, a very bad sign for our future.

Originally published at VolkStudio Blog. You can comment here or there.

The only way totalitarian governments can exist in the long run is by suppressing accurate information. Today, US government forced Intrade.com to close, removing one of the most accurate prediction devices recently developed. This is one of many recent steps designed to make us into the New World equivalent of the USSR.

Tue, Nov. 27th, 2012 02:54 am (UTC)

So, three things come to mind.

One, Intrade can still accept non-US funds, and, presumably, offer predictions on US events. The values of these predictions can still be published in the US. US investors just can't bet on them.

Two, there are still scientific polls, both of the exit variety and the standard variety, which, when properly averaged together, give a good snapshot of the mood of the public.

Three, this last election saw several incidents of market manipulation that give lie to the notion that Intrade was a particularly good predictor.

Tue, Nov. 27th, 2012 02:56 am (UTC)

Could you give me examples of the manipulations? I'd love to be wrong on this count.

Tue, Nov. 27th, 2012 03:03 am (UTC)

This happened this year : http://www.ibtimes.com/massive-position-intrade-presidential-betting-markets-causes-wild-swing-some-suspect-manipulation

This happened in 2008 : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122283114935193363.html

It's been claimed that manipulation actually strengthens the prediction market; I'm skeptical.

Tue, Nov. 27th, 2012 05:02 pm (UTC)

Robert A. Heinlien got it right with his "future history", we are truly living in the "Crazy Years".

Wed, Nov. 28th, 2012 02:58 pm (UTC)

So, who had a bet on Intrade that Intrade would get shut down? :)